Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
