A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
